The Future Should Be Bright for Coal-to-Liquids
You are at a cocktail party somewhere, and, after joining a random group of revelers, you utter the following words: “If I say alternative fuel, what’s the very first thing that comes to mind…don’t even think about it, just answer!��? If this fiesta was taking place last night, 9 folks out of 10 would have answered “ethanol��?. The remaining 10% would have probably made-up a mix-bag of “biodiesel��?, “hydrogen��?, and, in extremely rare cases, “synthetic fuels��?, also known as synfuels. Ten years from now, I bet you anything that far more than 10% of the general public will be...
Darling Ingredients: At the Margin
by Debra Fiakas CFA This week Darling Ingredients (DAR: NYSE) reported earnings of $100,000 on net sales of $874.7 million in the first quarter ending March 2015. Darling is a recycler of sorts, collecting by-products of the food production industry and recycling the left-overs and waste into proteins, fats and leathers. Nothing goes to waste. Every last chicken feather, hide, gallon of used cooking grease and cake crumb gets up-cycled to a usable material for feed, food, fuel or clothing. Its customers include pet food producers, personal care manufacturers and textile users, among others. Darling used...
Solar Headwinds, Part I
How Solar PV is like Ethanol Tom Konrad, CFA High levels of competition in the the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry mean that buy-and-hold investors should look elsewhere. In May 2007, I published a competitive analysis of the corn Ethanol industry based on Michael Porter's classic Five Competitive Forces model. At the time, Ethanol stocks were flying high, but my conclusion was that "the prospective ethanol investor should be very careful about investing in corn ethanol producers at random." If anything, I understated the case. This chart shows three ethanol stocks that have survived since 2007. As...
Sweetwater and Pacific Ethanol Strike Supply Deal
Jim Lane In New York, Sweetwater Energy and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) announced a project to supply customized industrial sugars for the production of cellulosic ethanol. The agreement supports the construction of a cellulosic biorefinery, contingent upon Sweetwater Energy obtaining the necessary financing and permits, at the Pacific Ethanol Stockton facility capable of producing up to 3.6 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually. Pacific Ethanol operates and manages four ethanol production facilities, which have a combined annual production capacity of 200 million gallons in Boardman, Oregon, Burley, Idaho and Stockton, California, and one idled facility is located in Madera, California....
Tax On E85 Renewable Fuel Soars
Jim Lane The US passed a dubious and historic milestone this week. The tax rate on E85 renewable fuels now exceeds 100% in some formulations. By comparison, the tax rate on E10 renewable fuel is running at an estimated 41% and the tax rate on straight gasoline is running at an estimated 35%. As Shakespeare observed in Measure by Measure, “some rise by sin, and some by virtue fall”. Now, the idea of a carbon tax is that governments are supposed to collect more tax against high-carbon fuels. Yet, policy in practice works the other way. The less carbon...
EPA Reneges on Trump’s Biofuels Deal
by Jim Lane
“EPA Reneges on Trump’s Biofuels Deal”, said the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association in reacting to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s new plans for fulfilling federal renewable fuel requirements. EPA released a proposed supplemental rule for the Renewable Fuel Standard today, and the bioeconomy is up in arms, and the outrage is centered in farm country, once a Trump bastion of support.
“IRFA members continue to stand by President Trump’s strong biofuels deal announced on Oct. 4, which was worked out with our elected champions and provided the necessary certainty that 15 billion gallons would mean 15 billion gallons, even after...
Advanced Biofuels in the Valley of Disbelief
Jim Lane Lies, Truth, and Disbelief via BigStock Photo Are you missing out on great investment returns – is the Dow really headed for 20,000? Is the advanced biofuels rally for real? Why are investors sitting on the sidelines in the Valley of Disbelief? This year in the United States, despite awesome returns in the stock market and miserable bond yields, the Investment Company Institute estimates that $85.4 billion in new investment has poured into bonds by contrast, only $73.2 billion into stocks. Seth Masters, CIO of...
Budget Cut at Methanex
by Debra Fiakas, CFA
Initially investors were worried about a few delayed orders as a consequence of the coronavirus outbreak in China. The global supply chain, of which China is a critical link, would be temporarily interrupted by work stoppages in that country. As the virus jumped to other countries it became clear that businesses all over the world could experience business interruption and that could mean significant earnings erosion.
Investor alarm spiked as denial and dysfunctional appeared to be the main themes in the U.S. policy response to the situation. Panic ensued destroying billions in the U.S. capital base. Bank of America estimates the...
3 Biofuels Reports We Can Ignore, and One We Can’t
Jim Lane This week, in Washington and Brussels, four news flashes on global renewable fuel volumes appeared on the radar. Can you safely ignore them and get on with other work, or is there something to get deeply informed about? Let’s look into it. Ignore This #1. The Point of Obligation RFS Crisis. The issue. Several parties petitioned the US EPA to shift obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard from them to someone else. Basically, to anyone else. The petitioners want relief from buying RINs, thinking about renewables, or experiencing any pain associated with the change...
